A turning point for Georgia?
#103
My Dear Friend of Democracy,
Yesterday's date might find its way into Georgia's history books.
But contrary to what some believe. Not for the worse, but for the better.
Tuesday, 14 May 2024, can be the beginning of the end for those who see Georgia's future on the side of Putin's Russia and authoritarianism. It can be a turning point towards freedom and towards the European Union.
How do I get this hope?
Yesterday, Georgia's parliament passed the controversial "foreign agents" bill (by 84 votes in favour and 30 against).
The new law requires organizations receiving more than 20 per cent of their funding from abroad to register as "agents of foreign influence" or face crippling fines.
At first glance, the law doesn't seem like a big problem. What's wrong with registering?
But looking at their big neighbour Russia, Georgians see that Putin's repressive apparatus was put into action with an almost identical law. First, critical institutions had to register; then, they were harassed and ultimately banned.
So critics fear the new law will be used to silence anti-corruption campaigners and others critical of the government.
Fortunately, there are many critics in Georgia.
Thousands have been shutting down the capital, Tbilisi, every night for about a month. On Sunday evening, about 50,000 people came out in the city of one million people (the whole country has a population of only 3.7 million) to speak out against what they've dubbed "the Russian law."
But why could the passage of the law be a positive turning point for Georgia?
The ruling party, Georgian Dream, used a double strategy to win majorities in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 general elections.
The party tried to attract conservative circles, such as Orthodox Church members, who are often critical of the West's freedoms. Georgian Dream promised that everything could stay as it is.
On the other hand, Georgian Dream promised to turn towards the West and the European Union. Only with this Western orientation does the party have majority support since an estimated 80 per cent of Georgians want to join the EU.
Under the new law, however, the government is effectively ruling out EU accession negotiations (the country has been an EU candidate since November 2023).
Therefore, it has become apparent that Georgia Dream's dual strategy doesn't add up. Simply because EU accession negotiations would bring reforms, and that doesn't go along with "everything can stay the same."
This is a problem for Georgian Dream. The party had to decide. And it has decided. For those who benefit from the standstill. Like companies earning well, not because they were better, but because they could keep others out of the market.
But this comes with a price. It prevents greater prosperity. And it probably will cost Georgian Dream a lot of votes. Namely from all the people who want to move towards the European Union.
This is an opportunity for other parties, and a danger. With parliamentary elections coming up this fall Georgia faces a big test about the strength of its democracy.
How far will Georgia Dream and Prime Minister Iraqi Kobakhidze go to maintain their power?
Some fear the worst.
I am neither a prophet nor an expert on Georgia. I only know what history teaches. It teaches that everything is possible. Things can turn out for better or for worse.
But there is one thing that gives hope.
The protests of the past few weeks have shown that this small country, nestled in the Caucasus Mountains, bordered by Russia to the north and Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan to the south, has a large civil society. Maybe change can no longer be stopped in Georgia.
See you in Europe,
Johannes